Polling guru John Curtice warns Sturgeon against ‘gambling’ with indyref2 as Scots divided
John Curtice: Early referendum would be a gamble
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Speaking to BBC Breakfast earlier polling guru and Professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde Sir John Curtice issued a stern warning to Nicola Sturgeon about a second independence referendum. He warned Nicola Sturgeon and Boris Johnson that an early referendum would be an “incredibly big gamble” given the tight margins between unionists and pro-independence voters in Scotland.
Sir John Curtice said: “If you look at the percentage of votes what strikes you is just simply how evenly divided Scotland is.
“Scotland is now divided absolutely down the middle of the constitutional question.”
He went on by explaining: “To give you an idea as to how neither side really at the end of the day can claim that this provides a mandate for their point of view.
“On the Constituency vote, 50.4% pf the vote went to the three unionist party, but on the List vote 50.1% of the vote went to the pro-independence parties.”
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The polling guru added: “The reason we have a pro-independence majority in the Scottish parliament is to down to how the electoral system operates.
“But hey guys those are the rules and that’s the way it has played out.”
But he casted massive doubt over Nicola Sturgeon’s claim she can push for an IndyRef2 in Scotland, saying: “The truth is neither unionists nor nationalists can come away from the election in Scotland confident that their point of view represents the majority view.”
And in a damming conclusion, he stressed: “Certainly for both Boris Johnson and Nicola Sturgeon any early referendum would be an incredibly big gamble”
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The polling guru’s comments come as the SNP fell one seat short of winning a Holyrood majority undermining their hopes of securing another referendum on leaving the UK.
But as the Scottish Greens also support independence there will still be a nationalist majority in the Scottish parliament.
In total the SNP took 64 Scottish Parliament seats, a rise of one on their previous figure, while the Tories got 31, Labour 22, the Green’s eight and the Liberal Democrats four.
Combined, the three main unionist parties of the Tories, Labour and Liberal Democrats took more constituency votes than their nationalist rivals.
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The results prompted Prime Minister Boris Johnson to invite Nicola Sturgeon, along with the first ministers of Wales and Northern Ireland, to a summit focusing on Britain coronavirus recovery.
The summit titled “Team UK” will seek to form a collective response to getting the union out of the pandemic and on the road to a collaborative recovery.
Johnson told the devolved leaders: “I would like to invite you to join me, UK Government colleagues and other at a summit meeting to discuss our shared challenges and how we can work together in the coming months and years ahead to overcome them.
“We will all have our own perspectives and ideas – and we will not always agree – but I am confident that by learning from each other we will be able to build back better.”
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